Is this a crash or a correction?

Is Phoenix going to Crash like 2007 & 2008?

From January to May of 2022 we saw record increases in home values across the Phoenix Metro Area. In some areas it was around 50% increase in home value.

We still had a lack of inventory at around 5,000 active listings at that time. Interest rates were in the high 2s and low 3s.

Buyers were in high demand competing with multiple offers over list price. Driving prices upward. Eventually pushing many buyers out of the market for they could no long afford it.

But then things took a drastic shift. For what seemed like years and years of a sellers market, It quickly came to a screeching hault.

In November Active listings were 22,749 vs 12,104  last year. That is up 87.9%!

While pending listings were down to 4,411 vs last year at 8,507. That is down 48%.

So number of listings has almost doubled, but number under contract has also dropped almost half??? Why is this?

Demand from buyers has been week for several months and really got much weaker in October. The continued mortgage rate increases has stopped buyers in their tracks. Sellers are also slow to come on the market during the months of November and December. Typically this time of year buyers have other things on their minds. Holidays, spending time with family and friends.

But people do have to buy and sell. There are certain people that can't wait for the holidays to be over. So you know if they are out during these months, they are serious and ones to have a conversation with.

Now with the greater Phoenix metro area being in a buyers market we have seen home prices begin to drop. The peak in pricing was in May after the March and April contracts closed. From May to October we have seen a 9.1% drop in prices, but still positive over last year at 5.7%.

With mortgage rates bouncing between 6 and 7% it is keeping demand very low. Buyers that could afford homes with the lower interest rates are now seeing an increase of hundreds of dollars per month for their mortgage payment.

I hear buyers say all the time it is going to crash! So buyers sit and wait year after year for the prices to drop. When they are continuously paying someone elses mortgage. Real Estate is a long term game. If you bought earlier this year, it is going to be frustrating to watch your home values go down. But the market is always changing. Long term prices will go up and down. Plan on being in your home for at least 5 years and see where your investment goes. The good news, it is your equity, not your landlords.

There are new buy down rate options for buyers out there. If you are thinking of buying but are not sure how to proceed with rising interest rates, reach out. Lets have a conversation. I can put you touch with one of my trusted lenders and see what your options are. There is no obligation. It is better to have a plan than just sitting on the fence waiting.

It is usually 2 months after homes have closed we know the truth about the previous months market. So right now if you are waiting for it to bottom out, we could already be here. When the homes that have gone under contract now close, that is when we will know the value that was paid. You may miss it if you keep waiting. Really what are you waiting for…that is stressful.

Are you sitting on the Fence? GET OFF! If you are still paying your Landlords money, then now is the time to consider talking with a lender. There are homes for sale and you don't have to fight off 30 other buyers to get it! 

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Ok, lets talk about sellers.

Oh how the tides have turned. While the market has shifted in favor of buyers, overall sellers are still walking away with a profit. Not as big as it was in previous months, but they have made pretty good money on their investment.

Most reports are focused on short term "crashes" and "price drops" this impending doom…we need to look at the long term of what sellers have gained over the past few years. 65% of listings in the MLS have been owned for 2 years or more. Sales price per square foot has gone up 33.6% if you owned it for 2 years, 59.9% if owned for 3 years, 68.1% if owned for 4 years and 84.8% if over 5!  Long term game, not month to month value. That is a huge increase if you purchased your home 5 years ago. And I am sure those people were on the fence baack then but made the decision to do it. They have no regrets.

So with this much gain over the years and seeing an almost 10% price reduction since earlier this year, is this a crash? It hasn't been 10% in one month…it is 2-3% each month. But we are also going into the holidays. What do you think?

I think the market is itself. We are seeing 90-120 days to sell a home. This is NORMAL. Selling a home 2 days or even 1 hour is insane and we have been living that for years!

Homes values have risen in value quickly over the past few years. Phoenix is one of the top areas in which people are moving to, so with so much demand, sellers were getting upwards of 30 offers on their home. With buyers with offers significantly over list price, driving comps up in those areas after closing.

I-buyers were also coming in with cash and purchasing homes and then relisting them for a higher price, with doing little or nothing to them. That is how quickly values were going up.

The past few years we had 5,000 homes for sale at any given time. With a huge buyer pool

In 2007, we had more around 58,000 homes for sale!

That is over double what we have to day. Of those homes, a majority of owners were under water, the homes were distressed and being sold at short sale and forclosure. Not enough buyers for those homes. Builders stopped building as well.

Mortgages were not as strict as they are today, so you could say you make x amount of money and great, here is your mortgage.

Today we are almost at a balanced market. We were back in June and July…but now are shifting to a buyers market. But it is the Holiday season. This is when the market typically slows down every year. We will see the lowest number of closings in January for lack of homes under contract in November and December.

The spring is typically when buyers are back out in full force. Closings are increased in the months of March, April and May. If mortgage rates reduce, we will see more buyers get off the fence.

We are at a normalized supply right now, buyers are just sitting tight. If we keep this amount of inventory and buyers don't go through the roof…it might be good time for both buyers and sellers In the spring.

If you are not sure what to do in this market, reach out by clicking one of the links below. If you have any questions, drop them in the comments below. Or click on a link to set up time with me to discuss your move to the area.

If you are considering moving to Phoenix AZ I would love to help. You can reach me in one of the links below.

Thank you for taking the time to watch this video. I hope you found the information valuable. Stay tuned for the next video. See you on the next one!